[KYHAM] ***SPAM*** Potential For Severe Weather Outbreak Thursday

[John Betner]

The potential exists Thursday for severe thunderstorms including Strong Lived Tornadoes in the northern central part of Kentucky
   
  73, 
  KG4LHQ
   
  Here is the day two forecast from SPC: ( STORM PREDICTION CENTER) 
   
  SPC AC 170600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN WI...LOWER
   MI...NRN AND ERN IL...INDIANA...WRN OH...AND PARTS OF NRN KY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS
   THE MS VALLEY REGION.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...INCLUDING A 90 KT SWLY H5 JET S AND E
   OF THE LOW CENTER.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NEWD ACROSS THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
   MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES...
   WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS
   INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF A WIDESPREAD AREA EXTENDING
   FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES.
   
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE RISK
   AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...DRIVEN BY LARGE-SCALE WARM
   ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.  AS THIS JET
   WEAKENS/SHIFTS NEWD DURING THE DAY...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
   SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING POCKETS OF LIMITED HEATING AND AT LEAST MARGINAL
   DESTABILIZATION OF VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
   
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR
   AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD.
   
   STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...AS
   INTENSE FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE -- VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT FROM THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS -- RESULTS IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
   OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR WELL-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.  LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA...AND VERY STRONG/DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE AMBIENT FLOW FIELD. 
   FURTHER...GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW LCLS ALONG WITH AMPLE
   VEERING/SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
   LIKELY -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW MAY BE
   STRONG/LONG-LIVED.  THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...LIKELY
   LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS STORMS CROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/17/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
       CURRENT UTC TIME: 0700Z (3:00AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

   

 __________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam?  Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around 
http://mail.yahoo.com 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://kyham.net/pipermail/kyham_kyham.net/attachments/20071017/75e30562/attachment.html